Author: Patricia Rogers
Full Citation: Rogers, P. (2014). Theory of Change. (Methodological briefs: Impact evaluation 2). Florence, Italy: UNICEF
Overview: In this paper, prepared for as a guide for UNICEF, Rogers provides a brief description of Theory of Change (TOC) and defines its purpose: “It explains how activities are understood to produce a series of results that contribute to achieving the final intended impacts.” She notes that the TOC is sometimes also referred to as a logframe that consists of information on inputs, outputs, outcomes, and impacts, with assumptions that reflect beliefs about the factors that will influence outcomes. She notes that there are other representations of program logic that explain different levels of change, different actors, and different causal pathways. Rogers recommends that a program or project theory of change should be developed in two parts, “a theory about how this change will come about and a theory about how the intervention will trigger this change”. Rogers describes in detail what to include in drawing the TOC and how it can be useful for impact evaluation. She provides two examples and analyzes the theory of change of the UNFPA-UNICEF Joint Programme on Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting: Accelerating Change, 2008 – 2012, and the Bangladesh Integrated Nutrition Programme.